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Grains Report 07/31/2020

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DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 03, 2020 24 Jun 26, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 03, 2020 412 Jul 23, 2020

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower and all three markets are looking for direction right now. Spring Wheat here is developing under good growing conditions. Yield reports from the central and southern Great Plains have been variable, but generally a little better than expected. Soft Red Winter yields are high. The Winter Wheat markets are in trading ranges. Spring Wheat markets show mixed trends as good conditions are also reported in much of Canada. It remains dry in the western sections of the Great Plains but this will aid harvest progress now. It is still dry in France and Russia and now Spring Wheat areas of Russia are being affected. Russian Winter Wheat yields have improved over time as harvesters move into areas that had better growing conditions. Australia remains in good condition and is getting beneficial rains. About half of the Argentine Wheat belt is too dry.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 519, 517, and 494 September, with resistance at 540, 544, and 552 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 433, 431, and 424 September, with resistance at 455, 464, and 468 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 506, 500, and 498 September, and resistance is at 520, 528, and 531 September.

RICE
General Comments Rice was higher after trading sharply higher on the Gulf weather and news that China had bought 20 tons of US Rice. The amount bought is very small but news that China would buy US Rice was what was important. Harvest has started near the Gulf Coast and producers got a chance to sell at higher levels yesterday. New crop prospects appear solid for increased production in the coming year. The area is larger and the growing conditions are mostly good. The combination of good export buying in general and the buying inside the US due to the Coronavirus has made the market short old crop Rice. There are ideas that the mills are well covered into new crop, but little Rice is available from producers. The crops that got planted are in very good condition in the south and near the Gulf Coast and are called in good condition now in Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Texas and southern Louisiana field yield reports are strong.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1148, 1135, and 1120 September, with resistance at 1170, 1176, and 1183 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments Corn was a little higher as news of very strong Chinese demand met ideas of very good and improving growing conditions in the Midwest. USDA said yesterday morning that China bought over 1.9 million tons of US Corn. It should turn cooler and wetter for parts of this week. Eastern areas are likely to see the rains while the west misses out. Trends are down in Corn. There have been problems with demand. Meats processors are back and are close to capacity. Meats wholesale and retail prices are stable or falling. Recent reverses by some states on opening orders are hurting demand ideas for ethanol. US prices are still high in the world market so export sales are expected to be less.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 114,300 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 314, 311, and 299 September. Support is at 314, 307, and 303 September, and resistance is at 325, 330, and 336 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 275, 270, and 268 September, and resistance is at 284, 288, and 290 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher on new reports of Chinese demand and despite very good crop condition ratings from USDA and from private sources. The ratings imply that yields for Corn and Soybeans will be very high. USDA reported that China bought over 1.9 million tons of Soybeans in the weekly sales report. China has become a much more active buyer of Soybeans here in the US and has promised to ramp up purchases in order to comply with commitments it made under the Phase One trade deal. Its commitments have been thrown into doubt by the continued political tensions between the two countries. China has remained a very active buyer in South America even as it has increased Soybeans buying here in the US, so the overall amount taken from the US might not match the hopes of the trade. Brazil prices have been creeping higher for the rest of the world as it starts to run out of Soybeans to export, so China and the rest of the world will look to the US for additional supplies. The US weather calls for drier weather to the west and showers to the east.
Overnight News: Philippines bought 222,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 884 and 866 August. Support is at 884, 882, and 871 August, and resistance is at 902, 911, and 917 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 286.00, 282.00, and 281.00 August, and resistance is at 292.00, 296.00, and 298.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2950, 2910, and 2890 August, with resistance at 3020, 3030, and 3050 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed. Flooding and a lack of workers for the plantations have been the reasons to see less production. Higher world petroleum prices helped with ideas of increased bio fuels demand. Palm Oil has been hoping for better demand from importers as world economies slowly open after being closed by the Coronavirus epidemic. Indonesia continues to focus its Palm Oil on internal demand for bio fuels. Canola was a little lower on speculative and producer selling. Crop conditions are mostly good and farmers have been selling old crop supplies. The weather has been warmer the past couple of weeks and most areas have seen rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 488.00, 485.00, and 482.00 November, with resistance at 493.00, 496.00, and 499.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2430 and 1960 October. Support is at 2560, 2490, and 2420 October, with resistance at 2710, 2790, and 2800 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry to the south, periods of showers north. Temperatures should average above normal

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +48 Sep +145 Sep +60 Sep +69 Aug N/A N/A
August +52 Sep +60 Sep +71 Aug
September +55 Sep +60 Sep +72 Nov

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 29
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 471.50 -16.10 Nov 2020 dn 1.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 507.20 16.00 Nov 2020 up 3.60
Basis: Vancouver 516.20 25.00 Nov 2020 up 3.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 692.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 682.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 647.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 637.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 695.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 685.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 650.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 640.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 665.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 580.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,780.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 180.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2390)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 328,207 lots, or 15.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 4,708 4,813 4,692 4,761 4,701 4,759 58 280,587 136,495
Nov-20 4,341 4,376 4,320 4,338 4,331 4,340 9 790 2,228
Jan-21 4,312 4,360 4,301 4,326 4,320 4,329 9 44,600 60,986
Mar-21 4,328 4,336 4,301 4,314 4,318 4,325 7 176 225
May-21 4,337 4,373 4,318 4,334 4,334 4,339 5 1,651 4,412
Jul-21 4,355 4,356 4,325 4,331 4,327 4,342 15 403 449
Corn
Turnover: 1,429,313 lots, or 32.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-20 2,321 2,366 2,311 2,323 2,308 2,334 26 813,240 390,795
Nov-20 2,257 2,281 2,249 2,257 2,256 2,267 11 22,578 55,074
Jan-21 2,258 2,277 2,239 2,248 2,251 2,258 7 467,094 824,783
Mar-21 2,261 2,278 2,243 2,252 2,252 2,261 9 8,467 5,163
May-21 2,289 2,308 2,271 2,280 2,284 2,290 6 96,843 268,338
Jul-21 2,320 2,330 2,291 2,299 2,301 2,314 13 21,091 17,249
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,245,344 lots, or 36.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 3,000 3,000 2,879 2,899 2,916 2,913 -3 61 1,000
Sep-20 2,901 2,923 2,882 2,920 2,914 2,909 -5 636,187 744,798
Nov-20 2,924 2,939 2,899 2,937 2,930 2,924 -6 41,125 54,251
Dec-20 2,931 2,947 2,912 2,940 2,953 2,935 -18 17,669 5,526
Jan-21 2,924 2,942 2,905 2,937 2,930 2,927 -3 447,741 1,134,003
Mar-21 2,758 2,779 2,752 2,777 2,764 2,766 2 1,446 4,488
May-21 2,715 2,734 2,711 2,731 2,717 2,723 6 100,889 496,127
Jul-21 2,735 2,754 2,735 2,754 2,732 2,749 17 226 444
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,309,959 lots, or 73.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 5,940 5,940 5,620 5,622 5,904 5,748 -156 5 0
Sep-20 5,700 5,706 5,532 5,680 5,662 5,642 -20 1,086,031 253,853
Oct-20 5,580 5,598 5,412 5,578 5,546 5,540 -6 13,666 7,057
Nov-20 5,530 5,610 5,382 5,520 5,486 5,494 8 9,206 3,141
Dec-20 5,524 5,524 5,378 5,490 5,472 5,478 6 5,948 1,626
Jan-21 5,468 5,490 5,358 5,474 5,436 5,440 4 192,120 165,906
Feb-21 5,402 5,402 5,336 5,336 5,456 5,368 -88 4 120
Mar-21 – – – 5,428 5,428 5,428 0 0 17
Apr-21 – – – 5,418 5,416 5,418 2 0 151
May-21 5,444 5,456 5,336 5,444 5,420 5,412 -8 2,977 12,445
Jun-21 5,416 5,420 5,416 5,420 5,402 5,418 16 2 2
Jul-21 – – – 5,388 5,374 5,388 14 0 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 688,093 lots, or 42.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-20 6,068 6,100 6,068 6,100 6,082 6,086 4 4 1
Sep-20 6,280 6,304 6,170 6,262 6,220 6,252 32 393,321 221,461
Nov-20 6,318 6,318 6,176 6,272 6,226 6,266 40 7,242 9,519
Dec-20 6,272 6,312 6,166 6,264 6,228 6,260 32 3,911 2,412
Jan-21 6,252 6,286 6,130 6,224 6,196 6,226 30 270,578 364,183
Mar-21 6,190 6,214 6,070 6,166 6,138 6,166 28 3,416 470
May-21 6,160 6,176 6,056 6,132 6,126 6,120 -6 9,620 37,444
Jul-21 6,104 6,104 6,104 6,104 6,100 6,104 4 1 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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