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Corn - Just My Opinion

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March Corn closed 1.5 cents higher ($3.80.75), July 1.5 cents higher ($3.96.5) & Dec 1 cent higher ($4.03.5)

February Chgo Ethanol expired unchanged ($1.320) & March closed 0.010 cents a gallon lower ($1.313)

Flat price corn inches higher on the day. It seems the MO for the daily trade of late has been to ease early in the day and then spend the balance of the firming. Overall March corn has spent the last 9 trading days between $3.75 and $3.81 . I get the impression the trade wants to have a long bias going into the USDA reports scheduled for Friday, February 8th. The USDA will update the reports we missed on January 11th (Quarterly stocks, final production involving yield and harvested acre updates) as well as current carryover estimates, both US and World. The trade still has the belief that we will have some Chinese announcements involving US corn purchases when it is all said and done. I do know that now is the time frame for an improvement in US corn exports as SA focuses on soybean exports. To date both corn US exports and domestic corn disappearance (grinding for ethanol) are lagging.

The interior cash corn basis has taken on a mixed look. Locations that involve export are better while locations involved with ethanol are steady to lower. The Gulf is running about 2-3 cents better. Cash movement appears to be just so-so as producers are like traders; they want to see what the USDA has to say on Friday. Corn spreads, on the day, had a fractionally friendly bias.

The technical look has not changed; a 6 month old trading range affair that is featuring a succession of lower highs and higher lows. The last 9 days of trade cant get much more sideways with its barely 6 cent range. I believe the bias will be higher going into Fridays numbers but after that it could become a different ball game (i.e. buy the rumor / sell the fact).

Daily Support & Resistance for 02/06

Mch Corn: $3.77.5 - $3.83.5

July Corn: $3.93.5 - $3.99.5

Trading Futures is Risky - You can lose everything and then some more

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