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Morning Express

As you know, our report goes out each morning to clients and Free Trial subscribers berfore 7:30 am CT. Enjoy our Fundamnetals below. But please register for a Free Trial of 1 or all 4 of of our Blue Line Express daily commodity reports in order to get all of our great insight; Techinicals, Fundamenals, and proprietary Bias and Levels. E-mini S&P, Crude, Gold. Contact our trade desk, we cover more - Treasuries, Nat Gas, Copper etc -312-278-0500 or info@bluelinefutures.com

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E-mini S&P (December)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 3114.25, down 29.50

Fundamentals:U.S benchmarks slipped to start the week, and this was healthy. Price action is pointing lower again this morning ahead of the bell after President Trump signaled his willingness to delay a U.S-China trade deal until after the 2020 election. With those December 15th tariffs inching ever closer, risk-sentiment is beginning to get antsy at such elevated levels. Setting the wheels in motion last week was the U.S passing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. Although China has yet to officially retaliate on the trade front, they are now expected to publish an unreliable entity list. This list, initially in response to Washingtons treatment of Huawei has been marinating since May. However, given the Hong Kong bill and legislation moving through Washington related to Xinjiang, China is readying a response. As of right now, neither side seems to have crossed a line of no return and as always, we are one tweet away of solving these budding issues.

From another angle, the Federal Reserve is due to meet next week and expected to stand pat on rates. With the S&P at a fresh record as recently as yesterday, global data seemingly attempting to turn a corner (outside of U.S ISM Manufacturing yesterday) and a trade deal in the crosshairs, the odds of a rate HIKE rose to a 7.5%. We certainly do not expect the Fed to hike but it is important to remember President Trump wants rates even lower than current levels. It begs the question, is he stirring the pot for this reason? No trade deal leaves mounting global uncertainty and once the Fed exudes a more dovish rhetoric next week, U.S-China tensions will deescalate.

U.S and EU relations are back in the spotlight. Mounting tensions hit newswires last week amid the Airbus battle but has sense moved to President Trumps response to Frances new digital tax and his threat to impose a tariff of up to 100% on $2.4 billion of French goods. This also opens the door to other countries who have digital taxes such as Italy. All parties are in London for the 70th anniversary of NATO and this will certainly be a topic of discussion. Lets also not forget yesterdays threat to restore steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina and it would certainly appear that Washington is stirring that pot.

Technicals:Price action in each the S&P and NQ took out crucial levels of support this morning and this opens the door for a path of least resistance to our rare major four star supports at 3032.25-3042.25 in the S&P and 8072-8090.25 in the NQ. Early yesterday morning, the S&P was lingering at major three-star support at 3136-3132.50 and a big miss on ISM Manufacturing was enough to slice through this support level and open the door to what has become a minor and healthy correction (near-term bear leg). The bears are in the drivers seat as long as price action holds below 3095.50-3099 in the S&P and below 8233-8250 in the NQ. Major three-star resistance now comes in at 3110.25-3114.25 and 8300-8316, these levels will provide a swing trade sell opportunity upon the first test. We are not encouraging anyone to chase this price action and it is important to remember that patience is rewarding. Although, we are just now introducing a slight Bearish Bias below as we expect those major levels to be achieved, many of you know at the trade desk we have been patiently positioning for this minor correction from such elevated levels.

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Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 3110.25-3114.25***, 3126-3132.50***, 3149.50**, 3158*, 3165-3180***

Pivot: 3095.50-3099***

Support: 3090.75*, 3063**, 3032.25-3042.25****

NQ (December)

Resistance: 8276-8280.50**, 8300-8316***, 8330-8341.50*, 8366.25-8379***, 8453**, 8500-8527***

Pivot: 8233-8250***

Support: 8161.25**, 8072-8090.25****

Crude Oil (January)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 55.96, up 0.79

Fundamentals:Crude Oil is hanging at the flat-line this morning despite back to back 1% drops in the S&P as U.S-China trade turns sour (see S&P section). With the pricing of the Saudi Aramco IPO due Thursday, this leaves an uncertain narrative surrounding the OPEC+ meeting the following day. JPMorgan released a note this morning saying they expect OPEC+ to implement deeper cuts of 1.5 mbpd. The headline initially brought Crude more than 1% off its early 55.35 low. Traders must keep a pulse on the broader risk-environment but as discussed cannot wear blinders to the impending inventory data and OPEC headlines to come.

Technicals:We introduced a slight Bearish Bias yesterday as we saw value in fading the snap-back rally as long as it remained contained below major three-star resistance 56.44. Although stretching briefly above, it was certainly contained before settling below our 56.01 pivot. Furthermore, todays high so far is exactly 56.44. Given such, we believe the bears are in the drivers seat today as long as price action can hold below 55.96-56.11.

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Resistance: 55.96-56.11**, 56.44***, 56.88**, 57.31-57.52***, 57.86*, 58.64-58.93**, 60.45***

Support: 54.72-55.17***, 53.76-53.84**, 52.52-52.58**

Gold (February)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1469.2, down 3.5

Fundamentals:Gold began forming a bottom yesterday after ISM Manufacturing data whiffed but was held back by the rising global yield story on the heels of better PMI data outside of the U.S Although yields were rising, the Dollar was under pressure which is supportive to the metal. Tensions between the U.S and China on trade due to legislation (see S&P section) seem to be rising and yields are paring all of yesterdays gains which has laid an extremely constructive landscape for Gold. As it is trading up 1%, the winding down of a seasonally bearish time of year is playing well into our plan and it is not too late to reach out to our trade desk to discuss how to position out through Q1. Call Bill Baruch directly at 312-837-3944.

Technicals:We want to emphasize a more Bullish Bias on Gold but will refrain given that it is testing into major three-star resistance. With a longer-term look, we are very upbeat the metal and remain unequivocally Bullish in Bias. Above this level at 1484.9-1486, we see 1500 as the next target psychologically and as it aligns with the trend line from the highs. Our momentum indicator aligns well with yesterdays settlement and our 1472.7 level as first key support.

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Resistance: 1484.9-1486***, 1500**

Support: 1469.2-1472.7**, 1459.8*, 1453.1-1454***

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
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