Home Markets News Weather

Risk off flows back in action. US Retail Sales and Canadian CPI figures for April up next.

« Go Back

ANALYSIS

USDCAD

Dollar/CAD is trading with a bid tone again this morning as the broader USD continues higher, but EURCAD sales are taking the upward momentum out of the market as NY trading gets underway. The USD is being led higher by weaker than expected economic numbers out of Australia and China overnight, tough talk out of the Chinese foreign ministry today and a falling EURUSD market, which is focused on German bund yields descending to new lows (-0.12bp) and the BTP/Bund spread blowing out to new 3 month wides (+287bp). Next up are the US Retail Sales and Canadian CPI figures for the month of April at 8:30amET. Traders are expecting +0.2% MoM and +0.7% MoM ex. Autos for the former, and +0.4% MoM and +2.0% YoY for the latter. The US Industrial Production numbers for April come out at 9:15amET, and the expectation there is for a flat MoM read. Finally, well get the weekly EIA oil inventory data at 10:30amET this morning, where traders are now expecting a build of 11M barrels following last night surprise 8.6M barrel build in the API report. We think USDCAD remains in good shape, technically speaking, so long as the 1.3460s continue to hold.

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD HOURLY

USDCAD HOURLY

JUN CRUDE OIL DAILY

JUN CRUDE OIL DAILY


EURUSD

Euro/dollar is falling swiftly lower this morning as bond traders continue to punish Italian debt following Salvinis comments yesterday about exceeding the EUs 3% budget deficit limit. German bunds, on the other hand, appear to be the safe haven for global investors once again this morning as China says it will find others to fill the gap if the US doesnt want to do business with them. This sell Italy/buy Germany debt trade has been traditionally bearish EURUSD, and when we combine these developments with yesterdays bearish NY close for EURUSD below the 1.1210s, its not surprisingly in our opinion to see the market lower here. The next support level on the charts lies in the 1.1170s. Dollar/yuan is trading steady today, and has so far not taken out this weeks highs in the 6.9190s. The ECBs Coeure will be speaking at 10:15amET this morning and the ECBs Praet will be taking the mic at 12:30pmET.

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD HOURLY

EURUSD HOURLY

USDCNH DAILY

USDCNH DAILY


GBPUSD

Sterling is following EURUSD lower today after succumbing to sellers below yesterdays trend-line pivot in the 1.2930s. Traders have quickly tested the next chart support level in the 1.2890s this morning and so far the level is failing to curb the selling, which means the 1.2850-60s are likely the next stop. The EURGBP cross is treading steady today at yesterdays pivotal resistance level in the 0.8680s as traders yawn at Theresa May's announcement foranother parliament Brexit vote for sometime in June.

GBPUSD DAILY

GBPUSD DAILY

GBPUSD HOURLY

GBPUSD HOURLY

EURGBP DAILY

EURGBP DAILY


AUDUSD

The Aussie is slipping lower this morning after the May Westpac Consumer Confidence, the Q1 Wage Price Index, and the Chinese Retail Sales/Industrial Production figures for April all missed expectations last night. Yesterday's key trend-line support at the 0.6940 level gave way pretty easily and weve since seen follow-through selling as EURUSD moves swiftly lower. The S&Ps are giving back 15pts this morning as Chinas comments today dont make it seem like any trade deal is around the corner.

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD HOURLY

AUDUSD HOURLY

JUL COPPER DAILY

JUL COPPER DAILY


USDJPY

Dollar/yen is falling back this morning as a global risk-off wave sweeps over markets again, especially in EURJPY. Most of yesterdays S&P driven bounce has been reversed, but the market currently remains above key chart support at the 109.05-15 level. Over 2blnUSD in options expire between the 109.20 and 109.50 strikes this morning at 10amET.

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY DAILY

USDJPY HOURLY

USDJPY HOURLY

S&P 500 DAILY

S&P 500 DAILY

Charts: TWS Workspace

Interested in creating a custom foreign exchange trading plan?Contact usor call EBC's trading desk directly at1-888-729-9716.


About Exchange Bank of Canada
Exchange Bank of Canada, EBC Canadas Foreign Exchange Bank, is the only Schedule 1 Canadian bank specializing in foreign currency exchange and international payments for financial institutions and corporations. EBC provides innovative foreign exchange management and integrated international payment solutions tailored to meet business needs on a global scale. Leveraging industry leading technology and a client-focused team of experts EBC delivers comprehensive, cost-effective and trusted payment processes and foreign exchange currency solutions to create financial and operational efficiencies. To learn more, visit:www.ebcfx.com.

Disclaimer:All product names, logos, and brands are property of their respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification purposes only. Use of these names, logos, and brands does not imply endorsement.

This publication has been prepared by Exchange Bank of Canada for informational and marketing purposes only. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which Exchange Bank of Canada, its affiliates or any of their employees incur any responsibility. Neither Exchange Bank of Canada nor its affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is not, and is not constructed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a "call to action" or suggestion that you enter into a swap or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should carefully consider your ability to bear such risks through consultation with your own independent financial, legal, accounting, tax and other professional advisors. All Exchange Bank of Canada products and services are subject to the terms of applicable agreements and local regulations. This publication and all information, opinions and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This information may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever nor may the information, opinions and conclusions contained in it be referred to without the prior express written consent of Exchange Bank of Canada.

« Go Back

Real-time Login
     Get Real-time Data
Edit Preferences      Refresh:   On   Off