Home Markets News Weather

Ag Market Commentary

« Go Back

After the initial reaction to the June 30 reports, corn futures are up by double digits. Futures are 14 1/2 to 18 1/4 cents higher at midday so far. Yesterday’s rally was led by short covering, with preliminary OI dropping 51,078 contracts. Commitment of Traders data shows funds held the 9th largest net short on record on June 23. Some of those are clearly being blown out. The USDA Acreage report showed 92.006 million acres of corn was planted or intended to be planted at the time of the survey ending on June 16, including 2.339 million not yet planted. Traders were expecting a much smaller cut on average, as new crop plantings were down a whopping 4.984 million acres from March’s Planting Intentions. Old crop corn stocks were reported at 5.224 bbu as of June 1, but trade was expecting only 4.959 bbu on average.

Jul 20 Corn is at $3.40 3/4, up 14 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.43 3/4, up 15 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.51, up 16 1/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.60 1/2, up 15 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



So far soybeans are bouncing up by 20+ cents. With the lower than expected bean acreage new crop futures are trading 17 1/2 to 23 3/4 cents higher. Soymeal futures are up by $4.6 to $5.7/ton at midday. Bean oil futures are rallying by 59 to 69 points. NASS reported 83.825 million acres of 2020/21 beans were planted or intended, which includes 12.8m acres not yet planted as of mid-June. That was only 0.32 million soybean acres above March’s Planting Intentions. The trade was looking for a 1.32 million acre bump. Old crop stocks were reported at 1.386 bbu. On average, traders were expecting 1.391 bbu. Call that a bullseye. Traders estimate USDA will report May bean crush between 180 to 182 mbu on Wednesday. If realized, that would be down 1.5% from April, but still 9.2% higher yr/yr for the largest May crush on record. The average estimate for bean oil stocks on hand is 2.37b lbs. On June 28, new crop beans were 95% emerged. Soybean blooming was at 14% compared to the average of 11%.

Jul 20 Soybeans are at $8.88 3/4, up 22 1/4 cents,

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $8.81 1/4, up 19 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.79 1/4, up 21 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $8.83 1/2, up 22 cents,

Jul 20 Soybean Meal is at $285.30, up $4.80

Jul 20 Soybean Oil is at $27.51, down $0.11

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



HRW futures are up the most at midday, with futures 8 3/4 to 11 3/4 cents higher so far. Chicago SRW wheat is gaining 7 1/4 to 10 3/4 cents. HRS futures are also higher so far with gains of 8 to 13 1/2 cents. All wheat planted acreage was 44.250 million acres, after a modest cut to spring wheat. Winter wheat acreage was reported at 30.55 million acres, down 225k acres from the prior report. Spring wheat acreage was 12.2m acres, down by 390k acres from March’s intentions. Wheat stocks on June 1 were reported at 1.044 bbu, which was well above the trade average guess of 987. NASS reported that, as of June 28, 41% of winter wheat was harvested. Winter wheat conditions were 2 points higher on the week to 341 on the Brugler500 index. MT and WA winter wheat ratings were above 400 on the Brugler500 index, but CO was below 300. Spring wheat ratings were down by 6 points on the Brugler500 index to 371. That is down 14 points from the initial ratings. Spring wheat was 36% headed as of June 28. The 5-yr average is 45%. Jordan purchased 60,000 MT of wheat at $229.99/tonne for November delivery. South Korea purchased 60,000 MT of wheat at $215/tonne for November delivery. U.S. HRW wheat FOB prices are @ $186/tonne, a $10/MT discount to Russia.

Jul 20 CBOT Wheat is at $4.92 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

Jul 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.40 1/2, up 11 3/4 cents,

Jul 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.05, up 8 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are trading higher in the front months with Feb ’21 up the most. Feb futures are 61 cents higher at midday with the other front months 37 to 55 cents higher. June contracts are in the red by triple digits ahead of tonight’s expiration. Feeder cattle futures are also in the black at midday with gains of 30 to 91 cents. The CME Feeder Cattle index was down 36 cents to $129.68. There are no reports of cash sales yet on Tuesday. On Monday, USDA reported light cash sales activity at $95-$97 in the South, with a few dressed trades at $153. The online cattle auction site FCE has 1,814 head of cattle listed so far for tomorrow’s auction. Of the listings, 1,155 are KS and the remaining 659 are from TX and NE. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this morning. Choice boxes were down by 23 cents to $208.13 cwt. Select boxes were 76 cents higher to $201.47 cwt. USDA estimated the start to the week’s cattle slaughter at 121,000 head. That is 3,000 head above both last week and last year.

Jun 20 Cattle are at $93.375, down $1.625,

Aug 20 Cattle are at $96.925, up $0.500,

Oct 20 Cattle are at $100.420, up $0.375,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle are at $133.875, up $0.375

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $134.800, up $0.525

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $135.425, up $0.300

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures are trading mixed but mostly higher at midday. June hogs are down by 15 cents so far, but the other front months are gaining $0.37 to $1.06 so far in the front months. The CME Lean Hog index for June 26 was unch at $45.23. The National Average Base Hog price was $28.34, up by 3 cents this morning. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.61 lower to $63.60 on weakness in bellies. USDA estimated Monday’s FI hog slaughter at 468,000 head. That is 19k head more wk/wk, and 12,000 head above the same Monday from last year.

Jul 20 Hogs are at $45.225, down $0.150,

Aug 20 Hogs are at $48.825, up $0.375

Oct 20 Hogs are at $48.250, up $0.825

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After the Acreage report showed a larger decrease than anticipated new crop cotton futures are trading higher. Gains for new crop futures are 69 to 87 points. Old crop futures are unch in July and up by 71 points in Oct. The June acreage report from NASS showed that 12.19 million acres of cotton was planted. The average trade guess was for 13.15. That is down 1.518m acres from March and down 11.3% from 2019. Cotton ratings were up 2 points on the Brugler500 index, but still at just 317 as of Sunday. The Cotlook A index was 25 points lower on June 29, at 67.95 c/lb. The AWP for cotton is 49.60 cents/lb, with an LDP of 2.4 cents. Both are good through Thursday.

Jul 20 Cotton is at 59.62, unch

Oct 20 Cotton is at 60.84, up 71 points

Dec 20 Cotton is at 60.56, up 87 points

Mar 21 Cotton is at 61.16, up 87 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



« Go Back

Real-time Login
     Get Real-time Data
Edit Preferences      Refresh:   On   Off